European travelers may need to brace for a significant rise in airfares as the cost of jet fuel increases amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has cautioned that airfares across Europe could spike by as much as 20% by 2027. This potential increase is primarily attributed to the rising expenses of jet fuel, which have been exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East.
O’Leary highlighted that the next 12 months could see an unusually sharp rise in ticket prices as airlines grapple with higher fuel costs, which are a substantial part of their operating expenses. He warned that this financial strain might lead to some airlines facing financial difficulties, potentially resulting in bankruptcies and more consolidation within the industry.
Ryanair has managed to shield much of its 2026 fuel needs through hedging contracts, securing about 80% of its requirements at $67 per barrel. However, from April 2027 onward, the company has only hedged 15% of its fuel needs at $85 per barrel, leaving it vulnerable to market fluctuations. This limited protection against future fuel price increases is a concern shared by other European airlines.
Other carriers, such as EasyJet, are also feeling the pressure. The airline has reported rising fuel expenses and plans to cut its winter schedule to reduce costs. EasyJet has managed to secure some fuel-price protection for 2027, but uncertainties remain.
In addition to the fuel cost concerns, Ryanair is adjusting its operations in Belgium by reducing 20 routes and over one million seats from its winter schedule. This move follows an announced increase in Belgium’s aviation tax, from €2 to €7, set to take effect in January.
The potential rise in airfares raises concerns for both airlines and travelers. While airlines may attempt to offset their increased costs by raising ticket prices, there is uncertainty about how long passengers will be able to afford more expensive air travel. As the situation develops, both the industry and its customers will need to navigate these financial challenges.