A persistent upward trend in US oil prices is being maintained by the Iran war as it enters its third week, with global oil markets under sustained pressure and Monday expected to bring further volatility. Petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan projects pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, while $4 gasoline remains within reach. The trend is being driven by a combination of supply disruption, investor anxiety, and strategic blockades that show no signs of ending.
The current upward price trend was initiated on February 28 when the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, triggering an immediate and sustained rise in global oil prices. From below $3 per gallon before the conflict, the national average has risen 23% to $3.70, with each new military development adding fresh momentum to the upward trend. Energy market analysts note that the trend is unlikely to reverse until either the conflict ends or alternative supply routes are established.
Friday’s US attack on Kharg Island, targeting Iran’s central oil processing and export hub, reinforced the upward price trend by further reducing available global supply. Iran’s continuation of the Strait of Hormuz blockade has denied world markets access to roughly one-fifth of their usual daily oil supply, maintaining downward pressure on supply even as demand remains stable. Brent crude oscillated between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 after briefly cresting $100 on Sunday.
California drivers are facing average pump prices above $5 per gallon, with some Los Angeles stations posting above $8. Commercial diesel users in trucking and rail could face national prices of $5.15 per gallon. The heads of Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have each personally briefed White House officials on supply risks, with Exxon’s Darren Woods flagging the potential for speculative trading to further amplify the ongoing price trend.
Wall Street found mild footing Monday, the S&P 500 gaining about 1% as oil prices temporarily pulled back. Oil company stocks have surged to record highs overall since the conflict began. The upward trend in US oil prices will persist as long as the military campaign continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to international shipping.